The hottest theory of China's manufacturing foam i

Introduction: Recently, Forbes published a column in Chinese, saying that China's manufacturing industry is currently facing two dilemmas: the deterioration of the investment and operation environment and serious overcapacity. The rapid expansion of the manufacturing foam has become a weakness of China's economy. In this regard, some experts told this newspaper that this argument is pure nonsense and is not worth a

recently, Forbes published a column in Chinese, saying that China's manufacturing industry is currently facing two dilemmas: the deterioration of the investment and operation environment and serious overcapacity. The rapid expansion of the manufacturing foam has become a weakness of China's economy. In this regard, some experts told this newspaper that this argument is purely "nonsense" and is not worth refuting. The investment environment of China's manufacturing industry has outstanding advantages, and foreign investment will still be attractive for a considerable period of time in the future. The contradiction of overcapacity in China's manufacturing industry is a structural problem, which can be adjusted by the market itself. It can be predicted that there will be no large-scale withdrawal of foreign capital from China's manufacturing industry for a long time in the future

there will be no "big withdrawal" of foreign capital

"In recent years, with the development of China's economy, the state has also successively issued some policies to protect the rights and interests of workers. The rise in labor costs is a reality and challenge that all enterprises are generally facing, not just manufacturing. But at the same time, we should also see that the quality of China's working population is improving, the industrial workforce is increasingly specialized, and the infrastructure is constantly improving. These are favorable conditions for the manufacturing industry." Zhou Lijian, a professor at the school of economics and management of Tsinghua University, then made it the basis of research materials, said in an interview with this newspaper

"the good times that the manufacturing industry used to have strong external demand and a large number of cheap labor are gone, but the current situation is still optimistic. China's demographic dividend is gradually decreasing, and the rise in labor costs is an inevitable trend. However, compared with Europe, America and Japan, China's labor resources still have obvious comparative advantages." Niehuihua, an associate professor of the school of economics at Renmin University of China, told this newspaper that in recent years, we have observed that some manufacturing enterprises have moved to countries with cheaper labor, such as Vietnam and India, but this will not pose an overall threat to China's manufacturing industry. Because Vietnam is a small country with a small population, industrial transfer can only be local and small-scale; Although India has a large population, its workers' quality, infrastructure construction and industrial chain integrity are worse than those of China, and it does not have the conditions to become a "world factory"

experts said that although the production costs of enterprises in the eastern coastal areas have increased significantly, there is still broad space for industrial transfer in central and Western China. With the continuous improvement of the market economic system, the relevant policies for foreign capital to operate in China are more mature, and the services are more meticulous. China's investment and business environment is still very attractive

there will be no serious overcapacity

"the saying of overcapacity is a repetition. In fact, it is only a structural problem and cannot be a whole." Nie Huihua pointed out that under the regulation of the "invisible hand" of the market, the allocation of means of production will naturally tend to a more balanced state. If some industries invest too much in a short time due to policy incentives, resulting in overcapacity, it is only a partial phenomenon. As for the whole manufacturing industry, external demand will recover with the gradual recovery of the European and American economies, and the domestic market demand potential is also great, so it is impossible to have serious overcapacity

"in my opinion, overcapacity in some industries is a good thing." Zhou Li said, "the more obvious this phenomenon is, the more it can reflect the problem. Let the government and investors know that they should no longer concentrate production resources on this industry, and let the market adjust itself and regain balance."

Yin Jian, deputy director of the Institute of finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that when the light is on, observing the old industrial countries in history, we will find that the proportion of manufacturing employment in these countries exceeds 30%, which lasts for 50 to 100 years. At present, the employment proportion of China's manufacturing industry has not entered the minimum basic line of 30%. After entering, there will be decades of industrialization

solve the dilemma by transformation and upgrading

in response to the recent call of the United States and other countries to "return the manufacturing industry", Nie Huihua said that this mainly refers to high-end manufacturing. On the one hand, the return of manufacturing industry to the mainland is to solve the employment problem. On the other hand, the profits of high-end manufacturing industry are relatively high, and they want to control this part of industry in their own hands. From the perspective of the global distribution of manufacturing industry, the R & D and design with high added value are mainly concentrated in the United States, Japan and South Korea. China undertakes the middle and low end of the industrial chain, and the proportion of high-end manufacturing industry is very small. "In the future, this pattern will not change greatly. China's existing low-end manufacturing plants cannot evacuate on a large scale. If there is anything we should worry about, it is how to try to retain the high-end manufacturing industry." Nie Huihua said

some experts said that the western media exaggerated the operating pressure of foreign enterprises in China and exaggerated the severity of overcapacity in order to accompany the old tune of "industrial return" in the West

"industrial transfer from the east to the west is not the ultimate way out for manufacturing. The most important thing is to improve industrial added value and move from a large manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country." Liuyuhui, chief economist of Huatai Securities (Weibo stressed to this newspaper, "The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is the overall test facing China's economy, which requires efficient packaging orders in ceramics, sanitary ware, building materials, gold, home appliances, furniture, lighting and other industries. There will be a cliff like decline in laws, clean politics and transparent market rules, so as to reduce transaction costs as much as possible and make the most effective allocation of means of production. Only in this way can we get rid of the dilemma caused by the continuous increase of labor costs and realize Long term and stable economic development. "