It is very popular to enter the winter glass futur

2022-08-09
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In winter, the glass futures market is extremely hot.

in winter, the weather is getting colder and colder. In the traditional sales season, the glass market also plummeted with the change of the weather. This winter, the glass futures market is extremely hot. After the continuous rise of the "golden nine and silver ten", the glass market continued to rise again in November and appeared the limit. For the future trend, combined with the spot situation and the disk market, Personally, I believe that glass futures will continue to rise, but for contracts in recent months, we should be careful to prevent the risk of sudden rise and fall

environmental boosting is bullish

in the future, the country will reduce production capacity from three aspects: environmental protection, quality and energy consumption. While reducing production capacity, environmental protection is the top priority. At the 2016 China Glass Industry Cleaner Production and green development high level forum held in Linyi, Shandong Province a few days ago, in addition to discussing relevant technologies, participants also reached a consensus: stricter emission standards, stronger environmental supervision and law enforcement Environmental public interest litigation will be more frequent, which is both pressure and driving force for production enterprises, and more importantly, it will increase production costs and raise the spot market price of glass

cost support price

at present, the production cost of glass increases with the rise of raw material prices. The comprehensive cost has increased from about 900 yuan/ton in the first half of 2016 to 1100 yuan/ton now. Now the price of raw and combustible materials is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the spot price of glass is difficult to return to the price at the beginning of the year due to cost support in the future

the overall rise promoted the overall rebound and rise of industrial product prices in 2016, with an average rebound of nearly 40%. The main reason (success) was that the supply side contracted and the demand was driven, especially the black series products, which increased by more than the average. Relatively speaking, glass just followed the trend of "rising ships". In the case of capacity adjustment, the capacity utilization rate has been improved, and the glass production has not decreased, but increased. As of September 30, there were 353 float glass production lines, with a total capacity of 12. 6.2 billion heavy containers, including 235 glass production lines in production, with a production capacity of 9. 2.4 billion heavy containers; There are 118 cold repair and shutdown production lines with a shutdown capacity of 3. Carbon fiber preform company (CFP) is launching its 360 carbon fiber mold plate and fr.10 ultra-high temperature carbon composite. 3.8 billion heavy containers, with a capacity utilization rate of 73 before adjustment. 27%; 88 after adjustment. 59%, and the proportion of increase is relatively large; This year's output increase is a foregone conclusion: the output of flat glass in 2016 was 5. 8.4 billion heavy containers, an increase of 4. Technical conditions for fixed general lamps GB 13ryntz said: it is obvious that 037 (9) 1 due to the relatively large increase in production capacity at present, the output has increased in the last three months, and the annual output is expected to be 7. 800 million heavy containers, with a year-on-year increase of 5. 6%. The increase in output and price indicates that the market demand is further expanded. With the rising price of glass, the profitability of the glass industry is generally good, which is conducive to the firmness of market prices in the future

market leading risk

at present, building decoration and decoration of real estate are still the main areas of glass consumption. The real estate policy next year is temporarily uncertain. Under the background of the increase of glass supply, whether the demand side can maintain the growth rate this year is the main influencing factor of glass price changes. In the near future: 1. Although the demand of the real estate market has increased, the automobile market and export market have not changed much as a whole; 2。 Seasonal changes, the peak season is cooling, the north is gradually entering the "freezing period" of construction, and the glass in the Northeast has the possibility of "reverse irrigation", impacting the "Guannei"; 3。 Spot is a road that cannot be stopped or retreated once it starts. The demand market turns from prosperous to weak, and whether there is a callback after the price rebound. Based on the above factors, there are many variables in the spot price market, and the futures market is full of risks. All rises and falls still need to be interpreted by the market

the futures market is a place to tell stories every day, especially for glass futures. Market demand, fluctuations in the price of raw and fuel materials, cost growth, even environmental protection, transportation and consumption and many other factors are the content of each linked story. Combined with the current domestic economic situation and the trend of industrial product prices, I think the story of glass futures is just the beginning, It is far from reaching a climax. On the current market, the price difference between 1701 contract and 1705 contract has gradually widened, and the position of 1701 contract has been increased continuously. The future market will be wide and volatile. We should be careful to prevent the risk of sudden rise and fall. As an investor, we should do a good job in risk control management and fund management in order to obtain more income in the future market

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